What are the mortgage interest rate predictions for 2026? Here's what some experts expect.

Mortgage Interest Rate Predictions for 2026

Mortgage rates have gradually declined throughout 2025, recently approaching their lowest point in three years. Borrowers hope the trend continues, but the future is uncertain.

Current Trends and Influences

The Federal Reserve made its second consecutive rate cut on October 29, aiming to support economic conditions. However, inflation and rising unemployment—complicated by measurement difficulties during the government shutdown—pose risks that could limit further rate reductions.

Expert Insights on 2026 Rates

Experts are divided on whether mortgage rates will rise or keep falling in 2026. The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly, but mortgage rates often follow the Fed's policy moves. For example, anticipation of rate cuts in September led the average 30-year mortgage rate to drop to 6.13%.

While rates increased slightly in October, they remained in the low 6% range. The uncertainty about future Fed rate cuts adds unpredictability to mortgage prices moving forward.

"The Federal Reserve opted for its second consecutive rate cut on October 29, but inflation and rising unemployment — which are hard to accurately measure amid the government shutdown — could threaten any further rate cuts down the line."
"The Fed doesn't directly determine the trajectory of mortgage rates, though they do tend to move in the same direction."

Summary

Mortgage rates have decreased in 2025, yet inflation, unemployment, and Fed decisions create an uncertain outlook for 2026.

Author's summary: Experts predict mortgage rates in 2026 will face uncertainty due to economic factors and Fed policy, despite the downward trend seen in 2025.

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CBS News CBS News — 2025-11-06

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